江雨田，范仲丽，孙如飞，赵思远，朱从飞

(宁波市水利水电规划设计研究院有限公司，浙江 宁波 315192)

　　摘 要： 为克服传统山洪灾害监测预警系统存在的预见期、精确性不足等问题，建设山洪灾害短历时风险预报预警平台。以气象部门精细化短临降雨预报为数据驱动，构建基于雨量指标法的山洪风险预报预警分析模型，能够比传统监测预警系统提前1～3 h准确预判山洪灾害风险区域。平台上线运行后，在宁波市“20180917”“利奇马”等多场次台风暴雨中得到成功应用，可为山洪灾害提前防御和及时部署提供有力技术支撑。

　　关键词：山洪灾害;预报预警平台;短历时;风险;短临预报;信息系统;防汛抗旱

　　Research and application of risk prediction and prewarning platform for mountain flood

　　JIANG Yutian, FAN Zhongli, SUN Rufei, ZHAO Siyuan, ZHU Congfei

　　(Ningbo Hydraulic Waterpower Planning Designing Research Institution Co.,Ltd., Ningbo 315192, China)

　　Abstract：In order to overcome the problems of insufficient prediction period and accuracy existing in the traditional monitoring and prewarning system for mountain flood disaster, has been built “risk prediction and prewarning platform for mountain flood”. Driven by the refined short-term and impending rainfall forecast of meteorological department, the platform constructs a mountain torrent risk prediction and early warning analysis model based on rainfall index method, which can accurately predict risk area of mountain flood 1～3 hour ahead of the traditional system. After being put into operation, the platform has been successfully applied in many rainstorms such as “20180917” and “Lekima” in Ningbo, which can provide technical support for the early prevention and deployment of mountain torrents.

　　Key words: mountain flood; forecast and early warning platform; short duration; risk; nowcasting; information system; flood control and drought resistance