胡健伟，孔祥意，赵兰兰，朱冰

　　(水利部信息中心，北京 100053)

　　摘要：水利业务“四预”是智慧水利建设的重要组成部分，为大力推进智慧水利建设，水利部出台了《水利业务“四预”基本技术要求(试行)》。流域防洪是水利“2+N”业务中最为核心关键的业务，防洪“四预”功能也相对成熟，以防洪业务为例，剖析防洪“四预”关系，预报是基础、预警是前哨、预演是关键、预案是目的;对预报、预警、预演、预案的技术要求和要点分别进行解读，预报要点在延长预见期、提高预报精度、提升作业预报效率，预警的要点是及时将预警信息直达水旱灾害防御工作一线、直达受影响区域社会公众，预演要点在于正向、逆向预演和轻量化展示，预案的要点在可操作性和执行。本文件的解读将为防洪“四预”的建设提供借鉴参考。

　　关键词：防洪;四预;预报;预警;预演;预案;解读

　　Interpretation of the basic technical requirements for “Four-Pres” in flood prevention

　　HU Jianwei, KONG Xiangyi, ZHAO Lanlan, ZHU Bing

　　(Information Center，Ministry of Water Resources，Beijing 100053，China)

　　Abstract: The “Four-Pres” is an important part of developing water intelligence. In order to promote water intelligence, the Ministry of Water Resources has issued the Basic Technical Requirements for the “Four-Pres” in Water Resources Management (Trial). Flood prevention is the most important part in the “2+N” business of water resources management, where the “Four-Pres” measures are also relatively well developed. In this paper, flood prevention is taken as an example to interpret the technical requirements and analyze the relationship among the ‘Four-Pres’. The main point of forecast is to extend the lead time, improve the accuracy and enhance the efficiency; the main point of early-warning is to deliver the warning information directly to the front line of water and drought disaster defense work and directly to the public in affected areas, the main point of rehearsal is to show the positive and negative preview, and the main point of contingency plans is the operability and execution. The interpretation will provide significant preference for the development of “Four-Pres” in flood prevention.

　　Key words: flood prevention;Four-Pres;forecast; early-warning;rehearsal;contingency plans