刘庆涛1，蔡思宇2 ，沈红霞1

　　(1.水利部信息中心，北京 100053;

　　2.中国水利水电科学研究院，北京 100038)

　　摘 要：为提高重点河湖生态流量动态监管能力，针对各地服务支撑生态流量监管业务系统与数字孪生流域建设提出的“四统一”不相适应，以及生态流量监测预警、统计分析、流量预测、成因分析、调度方案预演、预警响应等全过程监管能力不足等问题，围绕业务管理需求，提出生态流量监管总体方案及“四预”业务应用总体架构。分析包括数据底板、模型库、知识库等内容的数字孪生平台建设思路,以及基于图数据库的生态流量预警知识图谱构建技术，提出包括监测告警、预测预警、水量调度预演、会商服务等功能的应用系统模块建设思路，梳理生态流量监管“四预”业务流程，可为当前数字孪生流域建设先行先试和水资源管理与调配系统中的生态流量监管业务“四预”能力建设提供参考和借鉴意义。

　　关键词：生态流量;流量监管;预报;预警;预演;预案;数字孪生;智慧水利

　　Exploration on application of “Four-Pre” business of ecological flow supervision

　　LIU Qingtao1 ，CAI Siyu2 ，SHEN Hongxia1

　　(1. Information Center，Ministry of Water Resources，Beijing 100053，China;

　　2. China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research，Beijing 100038，China)

　　Abstract：In view of the problems that current ecological flow supervision system is incompatible with the “Four Consistency” principles proposed by the Digital Twin Basin, as well as the insufficient supervision ability of the whole process of ecological flow monitoring and warning, statistical analysis, flow prediction, cause analysis, scheduling scheme preview and early warning response, this paper proposes the overall scheme of ecological flow supervision and the general framework of “Four-Pre” business application with the focus on management requirements. The development of the overall scheme of the digital twin platform is analyzed including data baseboard, model library and knowledge library. The technology of developing ecological flow early warning knowledge map based on graph database is also analyzed. Based on the analysis, this paper proposes application system modules including monitoring and warning, forecasting and early warning, scheduling scheme preview, consultation service and other functions. Through sorting out the “Four-Pre” business process of ecological flow supervision, it can provide reference for current pilot development of Digital Twin Basin and improve the supervision capacity of ecological flow in water resources management.

　　Key words：ecological flow;flow supervision;forecast;early warning;preview;response plan;digital twin;water intelligence