张 焱，孙飞飞，赵思远

(宁波市水利水电规划设计研究院有限公司，浙江 宁波315192)

　　摘 要：在基于预估偏差的台风路径集合预报优化方法的基础上，提出并验证不同预报时次的预报偏差不一致的假定，从区分临近样本使用途径的角度做出综合改进，以进一步提高该类台风路径集合预报方法的稳定性和实用性。对2008—2017年影响我国东南沿海的48场典型台风的全过程进行路径集合预报检验，并与模式预报路径预报表现进行对比分析。研究表明：集合预报在未来1～24 h削减国内外各大模式预报平均误差17.9～21.3 km，削减比例达72%～19%，说明预报方法具有较高精度、稳定性和实用价值。

　　关键词：台风路径;集合预报;预估偏差;实时校正

　　Ensemble forecast method of typhoon tracks based on estimated deviation correction

　　ZHANG Yan, SUN Feifei, ZHAO Siyuan

　　(Ningbo Hydraulic Waterpower Planning Designing Research Institution, Ningbo 315192, China)

　　Abstract：The article puts forward an assumption that forecast deviation does exist for different forecasting duration and frequency, and results of typhoon track prediction gather can be optimized by correcting estimated deviation. To comprehensively improve the stability and practicability of ensemble forecast for typhoon tracks, researchers started by distinguishing adjacent samples in terms of their footprints. To verify the validity of the aforementioned assumption, they took 48 typical typhoons in the southeast coast of China between 2008 and 2017 as the experimental subject. They compared results for next 1-24 hours from model predictions conducted by major institutions (national and international) with those from improved ensemble forecast of typhoon tracks with estimated deviation correction. It shows that errors of the latter can be 17.9km~21.3km lower than the former, a reduction of 72%~19%, which proves that improved ensemble forecast method with estimated deviation correction can be highly accurate, stable and applicable.

　　Key words：typhoon tracks; ensemble forecast; estimated deviation; real time correction